A leading error you’ll see in economic analysis, usually among crackpot Austrian types or amateurs, is to treat the economy as an automatonistic system. As a system “fully determined”, that no matter how complicated, it ultimately follows certain rules that can be readily understood and used for forecasting. This usually takes the form of “the USA will have hyperinflation” or “the USA will have a colossal recession”. When the reality is that, while both outcomes might prove true, it’s hardly “baked into the cake”.
Midyear Economic Outlook
Midyear Economic Outlook
Midyear Economic Outlook
A leading error you’ll see in economic analysis, usually among crackpot Austrian types or amateurs, is to treat the economy as an automatonistic system. As a system “fully determined”, that no matter how complicated, it ultimately follows certain rules that can be readily understood and used for forecasting. This usually takes the form of “the USA will have hyperinflation” or “the USA will have a colossal recession”. When the reality is that, while both outcomes might prove true, it’s hardly “baked into the cake”.