I saw that our dearest Bitcoin had fallen, unloved, to $33k today. Alas I can’t buy for another three weeks due to some middle class expenses. Bitcoin had hit around $30k and $32k in recent weeks as I recall, but never during normal daytime USA hours, so I’d only heard about it later. Seeing is believing.
So this is a real plunge, a real bear run for Bitcoin, many such cases. The past few weeks for me have made real the truth that you can’t time markets, and that you can’t spot a “top” or a “bottom” from staring at a graph. Someone tried to tell me he knows how to read markets, I’m like “dawg, you drive a $6k Toyota”.
This is the 5th identifiable slump in Bitcoin this year, how could anyone have known the past slumps were to be followed by new highs? No one knows. The market is always discounting the future using ever changing data, past price movements contain no reliable information. Just imagine if chart reading did work…the best chart readers would come to dominate the market, and destroy the predictive signals through anticipatory trades.
Bitcoin goes up, it goes down, at the end of the day, it’s the only game in town. Bitcoin’s not valuable because fiat currency is “bad” (it’s a trade off that necessary for modern economies), it’s valuable because its hard to steal, easier than gold to exchange, and not owned by any jurisdiction. It’s the computer version of the Stone Money of Yap. Ethereum is cool, but it’s complicated, centralized and run by one man. Buy Ether for the same reasons you’d buy Amazon, for equity in a business. Bitcoin is a different animal.