Thoughts on the Iran Attack
Trump truly is a man of his word. Immigration related problems are already notably down in the USA. There’s less construction related debris on the highways. Fewer ladders encountered at high speed, in heavy traffic. You see rednecks and black guys working landscape at jobs sites that would have been Mestizo illegals a year ago. They are forced to higher substandard American labor. I’ve even been promised a promotion, I suspect because H-1bs have been dialed back and they can’t spam infinity Celestials and Hindustanis at problems now.
Still, we’re ill advised to do Deals with the Devil. I won’t trade immigration reform for the Gaza Genocide, terror attacks on passenger trains in Belgorod Oblast or the Iran war. What can we possibly do but beg God for forgiveness for our compulsory financial involvement in these crimes.
I shouldn’t have been surprised by this shameful assault on the Iranians, but I was. Trump campaigned on it. Some of us hoped we could get the ‘daddy Trump material paradise’ of good government, low and filtered immigration, reduced race communism. No free lunch.
A friend sent me this Rick Steves Iran tour video from 2009:
It’s pretty interesting. Neat to see the Iranians are actually human beings. Iran seems like one of those countries where the more your learn about them, the more you like them. I’m not exactly enamored with every aspect of Iranian society, it’s no Serbia or Italy, but why exactly do we have to fight these people?
Anyway, the Iranians might close the Strait of Hormuz. It’s wild to see this finally happening. Years ago this was the big fear, Iran would close the strait and oil would hit $300. With the Permian Basin producing huge volumes, this is less of a risk now, but still, $200 oil is plausible.
We can only guess what the USA will do. It’s insane they flew stealth bombers over Iran and bombed them, anything is possible now. Markets are not too alarmed tho, Brent is only at $75. Markets weren’t too alarmed about COVID in Feb 2020 either.
From a Chinese perspective, you want to delay the confrontation with the USA indefinitely. Wait for the US society to rot out and fracture internally from its demographic and ideological contradictions. The Chinese will encourage the Iranians to be moderate, as will the Russians.
The USA can hit Iran from ships, but the volume won’t be super high. Israel’s high-income, service based economy won’t sustain prolonged bombardment. They’re rich kids, they want their luxuries. They aren’t made-of-steel, conquest generation Zionists. Eventually Russia or China will move proper air defense assets into Iran. Russia can supply infinite food, and China infinite everything else, via rail and the Caspian. Eurasia is unbreakable.
Too much might be made of the AIPAC angle. Obviously the Israelis exert enormous influence over the USA. Yet I see the US desire to punish Iran for using uranium enrichment as a bargaining chip out of sanctions as the primary driver. If Iran succeeds in trading away it’s enrichment for sanctions relief, then any medium income country can follow suit. It’s about stomping on a rebel, about making the Turks think twice. The USA can’t just be a big rich Brazil, it has to be “exceptional”.
I’m confident the USA won’t win. We are soft and somewhat incompetent. Also, it’s not 1995, America isn’t cool anymore. It’s a cesspool of obesity, weird sexual fetishes and Indian guys delivering Door Dash on mopeds. We aren’t the default model civilization.
So how do we trade this? I don’t know. I’m staying the course. Incremental savings go 50% Bitcoin 50% Argentina. Ultimately no one involved, except a few lunatics around Netanyahu, wants to fight. I guess Trump owed Miriam Adelson an air strike, but he’s unlikely to want a Vietnam or an Iraq. I say everything blows over by August, if for no other reason than the USA can’t take casualties and lacks a good proxy force to throw at the beleaguered Iranians.