The Ukraine War and Trump

The incoming Trump admin says it wants to establish a demilitarized zone on the contact line in the Ukraine. British and European troops policing the frontier. It will never happen.

The Mill of Murder

Steven Pressfield called the Spartan phalanx a “mill of murder”. That term seems apropos for what the Russians have built to fight this war. A machine that murders men, in this case, Ukrainians and foreign mercenaries who try to fight Russia in the Donbas and other places.

From what I can tell, Russia is now mass-slaughtering at a ratio of 10 or 12:1. It’s not even fair. Why would they stop now? Why would they agree to NATO troops on what they see as Russian soil?

No one dies for gay marriage

Consumerist populations are not willing to die at Second World War levels. The USA lost its mind 60 years ago at relatively modest Vietnam War casualties. Trivial casualties in Iraq were a major problem for the Bush Junior admin. The Poles or Romanians might die in great numbers to defend their countries…but for Ukraine? No. Once Ukraine is bled out, there will be no more bullet sponges for this project. If NATO puts large numbers of de jure troops into the Ukraine, they will die at unacceptable rates. The Russians, rest assured, have a special reserve of strike weapons to use on relatively low value targets for just such an occasion.

We already know the Swedes lost their minds, when earlier this year a bunch of their people got smoked in Poltava (history rhymes :D). Imagine that happening on a weekly, or daily basis. No way. The Russians still have a considerably capacity to escalate conventionally. They can certainly crank up the monthly casualties inflicted figure from 20k-30k to 100k+, through a mix of conscription, higher war economy settings, and bringing in foreign troops. Say NATO endures half that casualty figure, there’s simply no way a country like the “UK” or “France” substantially shoulders 50k killed per month for any length of time. Let’s be real.

The Future

Here are my very specific predictions. Why not?

NATO knows their mainline troops and populaces are soft and unmotivated to fight in the Ukraine. The best soldiers were the Ukrainian soldiers, and most of them are dead now. NATO war production is already maxed out and it would be a real pain to do anything about that. The globalists never reckoned the value of ethnos before going ahead and destroying it. Now they have no combat troops and no war support.

I predict the Russians will continue to degrade the Ukrainians, pushing on strategic objectives to draw out the motivated formations so they can be smoked with FABs and Iskanders (wonder why they haven’t taken Pokrovsk yet?). They won’t go for a knockout blow until they are confident all the motivated Ukrainian men are dead. They want to do the fighting in Novorossiya, near the current line, so as not to have disloyal civilians at their backs. Once the Russians have captured, killed or driven into exile all remaining Ukrainian manhood, they’ll rapidly advance, cut off lingering troop formations and get a surrender.

Trump will try to shift the war onto the Europeans, constantly remind everyone Biden started it, and otherwise put all his talent into weaseling out of escalation. He has a big domestic agenda and knows losing even 10k troops in the Ukraine would doom his plans. I expect second tier power brokers in Ukraine can work all this out and will be scheming to flee the country or switch to the Russian side. The war should be over in 2025.